{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "model": {
    "name": "boe-svar",
    "generated": "2026-07-21",
    "estimation_sample": "1992Q1-2023Q2",
    "draws": 3000,
    "accepted": 244,
    "paths_per_draw": 5,
    "source_pipeline": "PolicyEngine/boe-var-model public-data pipeline"
  },
  "information_set": {
    "data_edge": "2026Q1",
    "forecast_start": "2026Q2",
    "first_period": "2026Q2",
    "last_period": "2029Q2"
  },
  "units": "year-on-year percent",
  "variables": [
    "cpi",
    "gdp"
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "source_path": "papers/boe-svar/figures/current_forecast.json",
    "source_sha256": "991ba7fcf99a74a971486cb7c286ea5f41e718727b8a21e6f459dbd74e639dfd",
    "site_commit": "a0fd90e0eeb81c4052480f403e3eb99b2c75add0"
  },
  "benchmarks": {
    "random_walk": null,
    "drift": null,
    "ar1": null,
    "official": null
  },
  "forecast": {
    "2026Q2": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.1042806220419834,
        "lo68": 0.5510003372254778,
        "hi68": 1.666980716779398,
        "lo90": 0.192771840943567,
        "hi90": 1.9694943386558064
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 2.6785302332498873,
        "lo68": 2.2365556858919784,
        "hi68": 3.157965840529223,
        "lo90": 1.9438275074056066,
        "hi90": 3.4475946819537198
      }
    },
    "2026Q3": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.3627023330971042,
        "lo68": 0.5272867982988555,
        "hi68": 2.2330482527494495,
        "lo90": -0.09097516145835696,
        "hi90": 2.695983170703277
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 2.7100196114542143,
        "lo68": 1.9468065493598739,
        "hi68": 3.454373485118917,
        "lo90": 1.4235438631893544,
        "hi90": 3.952790079190609
      }
    },
    "2026Q4": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.7206449996464244,
        "lo68": 0.5640516087859759,
        "hi68": 2.6752703163401566,
        "lo90": -0.08919263441314337,
        "hi90": 3.4093599820890286
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.1217836392592346,
        "lo68": 2.093186295824305,
        "hi68": 4.13741930352289,
        "lo90": 1.4470185532503763,
        "hi90": 4.80874055477333
      }
    },
    "2027Q1": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.3584582389772777,
        "lo68": 0.0785751905859615,
        "hi68": 2.649498782598721,
        "lo90": -0.6891402283870889,
        "hi90": 3.4589474859415645
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.120929372038205,
        "lo68": 1.8789440496650696,
        "hi68": 4.485145414122816,
        "lo90": 1.019887246715544,
        "hi90": 5.4226891721669315
      }
    },
    "2027Q2": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.372528189906916,
        "lo68": 0.1073056110082052,
        "hi68": 2.6098019390803433,
        "lo90": -0.7794551272519357,
        "hi90": 3.3970577458050566
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.186829432874049,
        "lo68": 1.8957205541971642,
        "hi68": 4.623112577059112,
        "lo90": 1.0228534909516043,
        "hi90": 5.442621131974212
      }
    },
    "2027Q3": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.3741812433750056,
        "lo68": 0.20888691880131768,
        "hi68": 2.6123877085203913,
        "lo90": -0.739445041831243,
        "hi90": 3.402615545928813
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.286472247204131,
        "lo68": 1.8491208101832945,
        "hi68": 4.583197807574238,
        "lo90": 0.9476328593437444,
        "hi90": 5.530470455714035
      }
    },
    "2027Q4": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.3788291610100032,
        "lo68": 0.07707091251812004,
        "hi68": 2.6145430071947335,
        "lo90": -0.818889753959354,
        "hi90": 3.514046800670666
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.233280752902914,
        "lo68": 1.9275470047493968,
        "hi68": 4.606632222714463,
        "lo90": 0.9724774234388264,
        "hi90": 5.617574521157974
      }
    },
    "2028Q1": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.3612007855628008,
        "lo68": 0.040908502280317394,
        "hi68": 2.7196865968268944,
        "lo90": -0.8149122918822399,
        "hi90": 3.6053271080927174
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.199227340647383,
        "lo68": 1.9263048248901191,
        "hi68": 4.6192032406553745,
        "lo90": 1.0070077128151098,
        "hi90": 5.672525656548529
      }
    },
    "2028Q2": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.4232973096083015,
        "lo68": 0.02971837690303795,
        "hi68": 2.7788561402295446,
        "lo90": -0.945664351949108,
        "hi90": 3.760689229226114
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.2461848029472833,
        "lo68": 1.857251342463553,
        "hi68": 4.70901771136505,
        "lo90": 0.8719395499457051,
        "hi90": 5.769908458335319
      }
    },
    "2028Q3": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.3862398719609246,
        "lo68": -0.039938998523875884,
        "hi68": 2.881827038761048,
        "lo90": -0.9703271441583865,
        "hi90": 3.7916122638919085
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.2697622292784843,
        "lo68": 1.8114882175335787,
        "hi68": 4.663177973090492,
        "lo90": 0.8622969156736389,
        "hi90": 5.796652989372211
      }
    },
    "2028Q4": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.4024113713616089,
        "lo68": 0.006471832729248397,
        "hi68": 2.872887292828145,
        "lo90": -0.8753656320372443,
        "hi90": 3.8417180304912204
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.2530823211542383,
        "lo68": 1.820698795397609,
        "hi68": 4.708486865741367,
        "lo90": 0.7416752264597022,
        "hi90": 5.7761731576089455
      }
    },
    "2029Q1": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.4285381419904297,
        "lo68": 0.08268986329663669,
        "hi68": 2.9100354344064088,
        "lo90": -0.7947368100296558,
        "hi90": 3.7695962026524397
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.24932237244613,
        "lo68": 1.7052049954798394,
        "hi68": 4.808793720145998,
        "lo90": 0.732531942957172,
        "hi90": 5.8642376750134755
      }
    },
    "2029Q2": {
      "gdp": {
        "median": 1.4192438805027905,
        "lo68": -0.020919092181202376,
        "hi68": 2.8420198671654178,
        "lo90": -0.9257141382192344,
        "hi90": 3.8548901797231223
      },
      "cpi": {
        "median": 3.2479024354527724,
        "lo68": 1.7106972263954299,
        "hi68": 4.869224390247395,
        "lo90": 0.7601567975992538,
        "hi90": 5.887338128157577
      }
    }
  },
  "round_id": "2026-07-21",
  "archived_utc": "2026-07-25T01:08:19Z"
}
