{
  "_comment": "Generated by forecasts/score.py \u2014 do not edit by hand.",
  "rounds": 3,
  "periods_scored": 1,
  "next_period_to_score": "2026Q2",
  "pending_detail": {
    "period": "2026Q2",
    "variables": [
      "gdp",
      "unemployment"
    ]
  },
  "naive_note": "Naive baseline: the last outturn at the round's data edge, held flat (read from the current vintage, so revisions can shift it slightly).",
  "status": "1 forecast period(s) scored",
  "detail": [
    {
      "round_id": "2026-07-21",
      "model": "boe-svar",
      "label": "boe-svar",
      "data_edge": "2026Q1",
      "archived_utc": "2026-07-25T01:08:19Z",
      "path": "forecasts/rounds/2026-07-21/boe-svar.json",
      "periods_forecast": 13,
      "periods_scored": 1,
      "entries": [
        {
          "period": "2026Q2",
          "variable": "cpi",
          "forecast": 2.6785302332498873,
          "outturn": 2.8,
          "outturn_vintage": "2026-07-25",
          "error": -0.12146976675011256,
          "abs_error": 0.12146976675011256,
          "naive_rw": 3.1,
          "naive_abs_error": 0.30000000000000027,
          "beats_naive": true,
          "official": 2.136747,
          "official_label": "OBR March 2026 EFO",
          "official_abs_error": 0.6632529999999996,
          "in_68": true,
          "in_90": true
        }
      ],
      "by_variable": {
        "cpi": {
          "n": 1,
          "mae": 0.12146976675011256,
          "bias": -0.12146976675011256,
          "coverage_68": 1.0,
          "coverage_90": 1.0,
          "mae_naive_rw": 0.30000000000000027,
          "beats_naive": 1
        }
      }
    },
    {
      "round_id": "2026-07-28",
      "model": "okun-unemployment",
      "label": "svar-unemployment satellite",
      "data_edge": "2026Q1",
      "archived_utc": "2026-07-28T08:27:48Z",
      "path": "forecasts/rounds/2026-07-28/okun-unemployment.json",
      "periods_forecast": 4,
      "periods_scored": 0,
      "entries": [],
      "by_variable": {}
    },
    {
      "round_id": "2026-07-29",
      "model": "boe-svar",
      "label": "boe-svar",
      "data_edge": "2026Q1",
      "archived_utc": "2026-07-29T09:40:52Z",
      "path": "forecasts/rounds/2026-07-29/boe-svar.json",
      "periods_forecast": 13,
      "periods_scored": 0,
      "entries": [],
      "by_variable": {}
    }
  ]
}