{
  "quarter": "2026Q1",
  "provenance": {
    "model_id": "boe-svar",
    "package": "boe_var",
    "package_version": "0.1.0",
    "model_version": "0.1.0",
    "adapter_version": "0.2.0",
    "source_url": "https://github.com/PolicyEngine/boe-var-model",
    "source_revision": "3ab56259224c20a0bf65caa523e6e7440e56b37e",
    "data_vintage": "conditioned through 2026Q1",
    "baseline_vintage": "identified structural shocks",
    "baseline": "identified structural shocks",
    "estimation_sample": "1992Q1-2025Q1",
    "run_at": "2026-08-12T13:41:15.541729+00:00",
    "reproducibility": "Check out the recorded source URL at the recorded source revision, install the recorded adapter version, and rerun the serialized request against the recorded baseline and data vintage."
  },
  "draws": 6000,
  "accepted_draws": 430,
  "ess": 197.9,
  "warnings": [],
  "shocks": [
    {
      "shock": "World demand",
      "p_positive": 0.287,
      "p_negative": 0.713,
      "reading": "World demand shock was probably negative in 2026Q1 (P(\u2212) = 0.71)."
    },
    {
      "shock": "World energy",
      "p_positive": 0.105,
      "p_negative": 0.895,
      "reading": "World energy shock was clearly negative in 2026Q1 (P(\u2212) = 0.90)."
    },
    {
      "shock": "World supply",
      "p_positive": 0.873,
      "p_negative": 0.127,
      "reading": "World supply shock was clearly positive in 2026Q1 (P(+) = 0.87)."
    },
    {
      "shock": "UK demand",
      "p_positive": 0.809,
      "p_negative": 0.191,
      "reading": "UK demand shock was clearly positive in 2026Q1 (P(+) = 0.81)."
    },
    {
      "shock": "UK supply",
      "p_positive": 0.715,
      "p_negative": 0.285,
      "reading": "UK supply shock was probably positive in 2026Q1 (P(+) = 0.71)."
    },
    {
      "shock": "UK mon. pol.",
      "p_positive": 0.16,
      "p_negative": 0.84,
      "reading": "UK mon. pol. shock was clearly negative in 2026Q1 (P(\u2212) = 0.84)."
    }
  ]
}