PolicyEngine Macro
model 07 — ecological stock-flow consistent · define-uk · UK · experimental
Climate policy meets the UK financial system.
Who bears a climate-policy scenario — through balance sheets, not an output gap. The replication record, and the ceiling the publications impose on it.
DEFINE-UK: running and gating an unlicensed ecological stock-flow consistent model
One gate passes, one diverges, two close at a ceiling. The manual's Table 4 macro block replicates — population and labour force exact to 0.01m, growth matching to 0.06pp at 2030 and 2040 — but the 2025 growth miss of −0.30pp clears a ±0.31pp gate set after the run, so that year is a pass of the tolerance and not a match, and the paper labels it that way at the point of claim. Baseline emissions diverge and are pinned rather than tolerated: 393 vs 407 MtCO2e/yr in 2025, 343 vs 382 in 2030, 249 vs 324 by 2040 (−3.5% / −10.2% / −23.3%, computed from the pinned ratios).
No numeric v1.1 scenario results are published, so the two scenario targets are closed at the achievable ceiling, not passed: what is gated is scenario design plus two coarse anchors from a pre-1.0 conference version, and the emissions anchor admits 330–352 for a published claim of “just under 350”. The upstream is unlicensed — fetched at pinned commit 846081a at runtime, never vendored or hosted — and the baseline sits far from outturns (2025 growth 4.66% against an ONS 1.31%), so the adapter serves deltas, never levels. The 1.78 green-investment multiplier is ours and is not comparable to any published multiplier. In parallel, a clean-room Python reimplementation is 118 contiguous equations into its second milestone, with thirteen manual defects pinned as machine-readable gap records.
Inline PDF viewing is unreliable on mobile browsers, so it’s disabled here. Open the paper in your device’s PDF reader instead.
Open the PDFSource & reproduction: papers/define-uk/ on GitHub · Replication report → · All papers →
Cite this work
Ahmadi, Vahid (2026). “DEFINE-UK: running and gating an unlicensed ecological stock-flow consistent model.” PolicyEngine Macro working paper. https://policyengine-macro.vercel.app/papers/define-uk
@techreport{policyengine2026defineuk,
title = {DEFINE-UK: running and gating an unlicensed ecological stock-flow consistent model},
author = {Ahmadi, Vahid},
year = {2026},
institution = {PolicyEngine},
url = {https://policyengine-macro.vercel.app/papers/define-uk},
note = {PolicyEngine Macro working paper}
}No DOI is assigned. For an exact version stamp, cite the git commit of the artifact you used from github.com/PolicyEngine/macro. The model design belongs to its authors (George and Dafermos, SOAS); the replication and the clean-room implementation are ours, and are not endorsed by them.