PolicyEngine Macro
REAL GDP · YEAR ON YEAR
0.9%
+0.1pp from prior quarter
- Observation
- 2026Q1
- Vintage
- 2026-07-26
- Source
- ONS · ABMI
UK · official data + model outlook
The economy, without silently rewriting its history.
Current outturns, the model outlook, and the public forecast record in one place. Every number names its observation period, source, and committed vintage.
Swipe for more topics →
01 — current state
What has happened, and what the model sees next.
CPI INFLATION
2.8%
-0.3pp from prior quarter
- Observation
- 2026Q2
- Vintage
- 2026-07-26
- Source
- ONS · D7G7
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
5.0%
-0.2pp from prior quarter
- Observation
- 2026Q1
- Vintage
- 2026-07-26
- Source
- ONS · MGSX
MODEL GDP OUTLOOK
1.1%
68% range 0.6% to 1.7%
- Observation
- 2026Q2
- Vintage
- 2026-07-21
- Source
- PolicyEngine · boe-svar
MODEL CPI OUTLOOK
2.7%
68% range 2.2% to 3.2%
- Observation
- 2026Q2
- Vintage
- 2026-07-21
- Source
- PolicyEngine · boe-svar
REAL-TIME FORECAST RECORD
1 scored
1 archived round
- Observation
- current scorecard
- Vintage
- generated scorecard
BANK RATE
3.75%
+0.00pp over five observations
- Observation
- 2026-07-23
- Vintage
- 2026-07-25
10-YEAR GILT YIELD
5.04%
+0.10pp over five observations
- Observation
- 2026-07-22
- Vintage
- 2026-07-25
GILT CURVE · 20Y MINUS 5Y
+0.94pp
5y 4.58% · 20y 5.51%
- Observation
- 2026-07-22
- Vintage
- 2026-07-25
“Current” means the newest observation in the committed store—not the browser clock. GDP growth is derived from the ONS chained-volume level. Forecast ranges are predictive intervals, not promises.
02 — broader indicators
Activity, underlying prices, work, investment, and the public finances.
| Area | Indicator | Latest | Change | Observation | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Activity | Gross Value Added - Monthly (Index 1dp) :CVM SA | index 103.2 | +0.1% m/m | 2026-05 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · ECY2 |
| Prices | CPI 12mth: Excluding Energy, food, alcoholic beverages & tobacco 2015=100 | 2.6% | +0.0pp m/m | 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · DKO8 |
| Labour | AWE: Whole Economy Level (£): Seasonally Adjusted Total Pay Excluding Arrears | £749/week | +3.5% y/y | 2026-05 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · KAB9 |
| Labour | UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total | 712k | -18k y/y | 2026-05 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · AP2Y |
| Fiscal | PS: Net Borrowing (excluding public sector banks): £m: CPNSA | £16.0bn borrowed | -7.9bn y/y | 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · J5II |
| Fiscal | PS: Net Debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP: NSA | 94.9% GDP | +0.1pp m/m | 2026-06 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · HF6X |
| Investment | Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Business Investment: CVM SA: £m | £77.1bn | +0.9% q/q | 2026Q1 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · NPEL |
Public-sector net borrowing series J5II is published as a
negative financial balance. This page reverses that sign to display the
conventional positive amount borrowed; it does not alter the stored
observation.
03 — outlook
One forecast, with the uncertainty left in.
The boe-svar forecast is conditioned on data through 2026Q1. The table shows the next five quarters; the complete horizon and model method are on the model page.
| Quarter | GDP median | GDP 68% | CPI median | CPI 68% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q2 | 1.10% | 0.55%–1.67% | 2.68% | 2.24%–3.16% |
| 2026Q3 | 1.36% | 0.53%–2.23% | 2.71% | 1.95%–3.45% |
| 2026Q4 | 1.72% | 0.56%–2.68% | 3.12% | 2.09%–4.14% |
| 2027Q1 | 1.36% | 0.08%–2.65% | 3.12% | 1.88%–4.49% |
| 2027Q2 | 1.37% | 0.11%–2.61% | 3.19% | 1.90%–4.62% |
04 — rates and markets
The policy rate and the gilt curve, from the source.
These are observed Bank of England database values, not interpolated browser counters. Five-observation changes use published business-day observations and therefore avoid inventing weekend prices.
| Series | Latest | Five observations | Observation | Vintage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Bank Rate | 3.750% | +0.000pp | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-25 |
| UK nominal par yield, 5 year | 4.575% | +0.107pp | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-25 |
| UK nominal par yield, 10 year | 5.042% | +0.103pp | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-25 |
| UK nominal par yield, 20 year | 5.512% | +0.081pp | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-25 |
05 — next releases
What updates next, on the publisher’s timetable.
Dates come from the ONS metadata captured with each stored vintage. Series sharing a release are grouped; a changed publisher date appears as reviewable metadata in the next snapshot.
| Release date | Tracked indicators | Series IDs |
|---|---|---|
| 13 August 2026 | Gross Value Added - Monthly (Index 1dp) :CVM SA, Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m | ONS · ECY2, ABMI |
| 18 August 2026 | Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted): %, AWE: Whole Economy Level (£): Seasonally Adjusted Total Pay Excluding Arrears, UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total | ONS · MGSX, KAB9, AP2Y |
| 19 August 2026 | CPI ANNUAL RATE 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100, CPI 12mth: Excluding Energy, food, alcoholic beverages & tobacco 2015=100 | ONS · D7G7, DKO8 |
| 21 August 2026 | PS: Net Borrowing (excluding public sector banks): £m: CPNSA, PS: Net Debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP: NSA | ONS · J5II, HF6X |
| 30 September 2026 | Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Business Investment: CVM SA: £m | ONS · NPEL |
06 — releases and provenance
Freshness you can verify.
| Series | Observation | Released | Stored vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product: chained volume measures: Seasonally adjusted £m | 2026Q1 | 2026-06-29 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · ABMI |
| CPI ANNUAL RATE 00: ALL ITEMS 2015=100 | 2026Q2 | 2026-07-21 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · D7G7 |
| Unemployment rate (aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted): % | 2026Q1 | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · MGSX |
| CPI 12mth: Excluding Energy, food, alcoholic beverages & tobacco 2015=100 | 2026-06 | 2026-07-21 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · DKO8 |
| AWE: Whole Economy Level (£): Seasonally Adjusted Total Pay Excluding Arrears | 2026-05 | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · KAB9 |
| UK Vacancies (thousands) - Total | 2026-05 | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · AP2Y |
| Gross Value Added - Monthly (Index 1dp) :CVM SA | 2026-05 | 2026-07-15 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · ECY2 |
| PS: Net Borrowing (excluding public sector banks): £m: CPNSA | 2026-06 | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · J5II |
| PS: Net Debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP: NSA | 2026-06 | 2026-07-20 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · HF6X |
| Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Business Investment: CVM SA: £m | 2026Q1 | 2026-06-29 | 2026-07-26 | ONS · NPEL |
| Official Bank Rate | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-25 | Bank of England · IUDBEDR |
| UK nominal par yield, 5 year | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-25 | Bank of England · IUDSNPY |
| UK nominal par yield, 10 year | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-25 | Bank of England · IUDMNPY |
| UK nominal par yield, 20 year | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-22 | 2026-07-25 | Bank of England · IUDLNPY |
Official statistics are revised. New snapshots are appended to the vintage store; old snapshots remain available. Forecast scoring records the exact vintage used.
07 — coverage
Broad UK coverage, with a clear boundary.
Fourteen official series cover prices, activity, labour, investment, public finances, and sterling rates. Each is protected by its own fetch, licensing, vintage, and freshness checks—never presented as a decorative “live” counter. This is a UK dashboard; US-wide coverage is a separate future surface rather than an implied part of these figures.