Is the economy growing, and what does the model expect next?

One model in the suite forecasts UK output: boe-svar, the Bank of England structural VAR replication. The round generated 2026-07-29 conditions on data through 2026Q1 and puts year-on-year growth at 1.1% in 2026Q2, 68% 0.6%–1.7% — and in the same breath:

• Status: validated replication for selected outputs.
• It cannot answer statutory policy reform effects.
• Uncertainty is posterior 68% and 90% intervals — the bands are the forecast, not decoration.
• Estimated on 1992Q1-2025Q1 but conditioned on 2026Q1 data, so the estimation sample stops well short of the quarters being forecast.

Predictive validation: weak. No demonstrated skill against a random walk WITH DRIFT on any variable at any horizon. The grid runs 64 variable-by-horizon tests; adjusted together, the smallest Benjamini-Hochberg q is 0.36. Bank Rate comes closest (0.79 at h=1) and does not survive. The model looks strong against a driftless walk, but that benchmark forfeits the trend on a trending log level and is too weak to learn from. Under the published specification UK GDP is level with naive rather than worse -- an improvement, not a win. Benchmarks, horizons and the multiplicity table are on the validation page. Read the validation page →

Every round is archived before the outturn exists, and scored against the vintage it was made on — see the record →

Quarterly national accounts are revised for years after first publication, which is why the snapshot date matters as much as the observation period.

The snapshot files are append-only and never edited, so a number published here can be reproduced against the data as it stood — browse the store, its release calendar, and the as-of recipe →