model 01 — OBR macroeconometric model · obr-macro · UK · hosted

UK fiscal reform, quarter by quarter.

Run selected UK tax and spending scenarios and trace GDP, consumption, and investment over 3–5 years against the March 2026 EFO baseline. Borrowing is not yet returned by the PolicyEngine Macro adapter.

code

Shock a variable, read the deviation.

Four steps, from hosted tools to a local run: each step's commands appear alongside as you read.

1

Start hosted: the MCP server

The quickest route is the hosted MCP server — no install, no credentials. obr_shock shocks one variable in model units and reads the per-quarter GDP deviation; list_reform_variables lists the shockable levers with units; score_reform with model="obr" scores a PolicyEngine reform end to end through the static-costing bridge.

2

Or from the CLI

The pe-macro CLI mirrors the hosted tools one for one: shock a variable, list the levers, or score a reform from the terminal.

3

Install and run locally

Locally, the package installs straight from GitHub — the equation listing, the March 2026 EFO forecast tables, and the ONS snapshot ship inside it, so there is no data step. A reform is one call: pick an exogenous variable, apply a shock, read the deviation from baseline.

Two solves, so about a minute. python -m obr_macro.reform_analysis runs the five bundled scenarios — a £5bn spending rise, a 5pp corporation-tax cut and rise, £10bn public real investment (~£3bn nominal CGIPS per quarter), and a £10bn austerity cut — with charts landing in outputs/.

4

Pick a lever

Reforms enter through the 253 exogenous inputs; results come out of the 383 the model solves — the test is simply whether a variable has its own equation. The most useful levers and readouts are in the table alongside.

The full glossary — all 636 codes with descriptions, ONS series and equations — is the model package's variable and equation references.