PolicyEngine Macro

UK · official data + model outlook

The UK economy, with every number tied to its data vintage.

Six topic pages, one per question. Each carries the same four layers, in order: what the data says, what the models see and cannot see, the command that reproduces it, and the dated file every number came from.

01 — start from a question

Six topics, each with its data, its model, and its limits.

The rest of this site is organised by model — a reader has to know what a structural VAR is before they can find the inflation forecast. These six pages are the other axis: one page per question, and they are where the readings live. This page is the way in, and the provenance behind them.

Real GDP is 0.9% up on the year in 2026Q1; boe-svar's first open quarter, 2026Q2, is 1.1%.Growth CPI is 2.8% in 2026Q2 and core 2.6% in 2026-06; the model's median does not reach 3% again until 2027Q2.Inflation Unemployment is 5.0% in 2026Q1 and vacancies 712.0 thousand in 2026-05; the satellite forecast runs 4 quarters and then stops.Jobs Bank Rate is 3.75% and the 10-year gilt 4.8802% — and no model on this site forecasts either.Rates and gilts Net borrowing is stored as -15,989.0 (£m, a negative balance) for 2026-06 and debt is 94.9% of GDP; the OBR emulator runs scenarios, not a forecast.Public finances No series stands behind this one: pe-microsim scores a reform over a single policy year and cannot see GDP, inflation, interest rates and macro feedback without a macro bridge.Tax and benefit reform

Research note · 25 July 2026 UK CPI fell to 2.8% in 2026Q2—and the model expects it back above 3% by Q4. Read the CPI note → All notes

03 — every series

Every official series, and the topic that reads each one.

This is an index, not a second dashboard. The readings, their period comparisons and the model view of each one are on the topic pages, beside the limits that qualify them; what is here is what a reader needs in order to check a number — what is tracked, which topic carries it, when the publisher last released it, and the dated snapshot this site read.

ONS series behind the topics above, and where each one is read.
SeriesTopicObservationReleasedStored vintageSource
Real gross domestic productGrowth2026Q12026-06-292026-07-26ONS · ABMI
Monthly gross value added indexGrowth2026-052026-07-152026-07-26ONS · ECY2
Real business investmentGrowth2026Q12026-06-292026-07-26ONS · NPEL
CPI inflationInflation2026Q22026-07-212026-07-26ONS · D7G7
Core CPI inflationInflation2026-062026-07-212026-07-26ONS · DKO8
Unemployment rateJobs2026Q12026-07-202026-07-26ONS · MGSX
Average weekly earningsJobs2026-052026-07-202026-07-26ONS · KAB9
UK vacanciesJobs2026-052026-07-202026-07-26ONS · AP2Y
Public-sector net borrowingPublic finances2026-062026-07-202026-07-26ONS · J5II
Public-sector net debtPublic finances2026-062026-07-202026-07-26ONS · HF6X

Rates & markets — the policy rate and the gilt curve.

Bank of England business-day observations, for which the Bank announces no next-release date. No model on this site forecasts Bank Rate or a gilt yield: the rates and gilts topic carries the levels and quotes, from the capability registry, why the honest answer there is a refusal rather than a number.

Bank of England series behind the rates and gilts topic.
SeriesTopicObservationReleasedStored vintageSource
Official Bank RateRates and gilts2026-08-062026-08-062026-08-10Bank of England · IUDBEDR
UK nominal par yield, 5 yearRates and gilts2026-08-052026-08-052026-08-10Bank of England · IUDSNPY
UK nominal par yield, 10 yearRates and gilts2026-08-052026-08-052026-08-10Bank of England · IUDMNPY
UK nominal par yield, 20 yearRates and gilts2026-08-052026-08-052026-08-10Bank of England · IUDLNPY
04 — releases and provenance

When the next numbers land, and where the old ones are kept.

Release dates come from stored ONS metadata, grouped by release.

Upcoming releases for tracked UK indicators.
Release dateTracked indicatorsSeries IDs
13 August 2026Monthly gross value added index, Real gross domestic productONS · ECY2, ABMI
18 August 2026Unemployment rate, Average weekly earnings, UK vacanciesONS · MGSX, KAB9, AP2Y
19 August 2026CPI inflation, Core CPI inflationONS · D7G7, DKO8
21 August 2026Public-sector net borrowing, Public-sector net debtONS · J5II, HF6X
30 September 2026Real business investmentONS · NPEL

Official statistics are revised: every number in this section — this page and the six topic pages alike — is read from committed snapshots in the append-only vintage store; old snapshots remain available, and forecast scoring records the exact vintage used.

Every series above is published as dated, immutable JSON snapshots — browse the data store, its release calendar, and the as-of recipe →

These figures are the backdrop every model runs against — the baseline a scored reform perturbs and the outturns the forecast record is judged on.