PolicyEngine Macro
REAL GDP · YEAR ON YEAR
2.7%
+0.7pp from prior quarter
- Observation
- 2026Q1
- Vintage
- 2026-07-27
- Source
- BEA via FRED · GDPC1
US · official data + model context
The US economy, tied to its observation dates.
Growth, prices, labour, and rates—each tied to its period, source, and committed vintage.
Swipe for more topics →
01 — current state
What has happened in the US economy.
CPI INFLATION
3.5%
-0.7pp from prior month
- Observation
- 2026-06
- Vintage
- 2026-07-27
- Source
- BLS via FRED · CPIAUCSL
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
4.2%
-0.1pp from prior month
- Observation
- 2026-06
- Vintage
- 2026-07-27
- Source
- BLS via FRED · UNRATE
PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
+0.3%
year-on-year employment growth
- Observation
- 2026-06
- Vintage
- 2026-07-27
- Source
- BLS via FRED · PAYEMS
EFFECTIVE FED FUNDS RATE
3.63%
-0.01pp over five months
- Observation
- 2026-06
- Vintage
- 2026-07-27
10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD
4.71%
+0.14pp over five observations
- Observation
- 2026-07-23
- Vintage
- 2026-07-27
“Current” means the newest observation in the committed store—not the browser clock. GDP and CPI growth are derived from official level series.
02 — trends
Growth, inflation, and unemployment over time.
Open a country view for the full plots and official-series links.
United Kingdom
- GDP growth
- 0.9%2026Q1
- CPI inflation
- 2.8%2026Q2
- Unemployment
- 5.0%2026Q1
United States
- GDP growth
- 2.7%2026Q1
- CPI inflation
- 3.5%2026-06
- Unemployment
- 4.2%2026-06
02 — broader indicators
Activity, prices, and work on comparable terms.
| Area | Indicator | Latest | Change | Observation | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Activity | US real gross domestic product | 2.7% | year on year | 2026Q1 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · GDPC1 |
| Prices | US consumer price index, all urban consumers | 3.5% | year on year | 2026-06 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · CPIAUCSL |
| Labour | US unemployment rate | 4.2% | -0.1pp m/m | 2026-06 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · UNRATE |
| Labour | US total nonfarm payroll employment | 159.0m | +57k m/m | 2026-06 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · PAYEMS |
03 — model context
US model scenarios, kept separate from outturns.
Trace US policy and macro shocks.
Run Federal Reserve model responses under a declared policy rule and expectations closure.
Open frb-us →See distributional shock transmission.
Compare stylized responses across household wealth groups around a calibrated steady state.
Open us-hank →Neither model forecasts the current US economy. The page keeps observed outturns separate from model counterfactuals.
04 — rates and markets
The policy rate and the 10-year Treasury yield.
| Series | Latest | Five observations | Observation | Vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective federal funds rate | 3.630% | -0.010pp | 2026-06 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · FEDFUNDS |
| 10-year US Treasury constant maturity rate | 4.710% | +0.140pp | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · DGS10 |
05 — sources and vintages
Freshness you can verify.
Show all six series and stored vintages
| Series | Observation | Stored vintage | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US real gross domestic product | 2026Q1 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · GDPC1 |
| US consumer price index, all urban consumers | 2026-06 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · CPIAUCSL |
| US unemployment rate | 2026-06 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · UNRATE |
| US total nonfarm payroll employment | 2026-06 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · PAYEMS |
| Effective federal funds rate | 2026-06 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · FEDFUNDS |
| 10-year US Treasury constant maturity rate | 2026-07-23 | 2026-07-27 | FRED · DGS10 |
BEA, BLS, and Federal Reserve series are distributed through FRED. New snapshots append to the public vintage store.