Rates and Treasuries — PolicyEngine Macro

01 — where it stands

The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.

EFFECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE

3.63%

stored as 3.63 · percent

Observation: 2026-07
Vintage: 2026-08-04
Source: FRED · FEDFUNDS

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD

4.72%

stored as 4.72 · percent

Observation: 2026-08-10
Vintage: 2026-08-12
Source: FRED · DGS10

Federal Reserve observations as FRED distributes them: FEDFUNDS is a monthly average of the effective rate and DGS10 a business-day constant-maturity quote. Nothing is rounded on the way in or out.

How those readings have moved, derived from the same stored observations rather than typed in: Effective federal funds rate -0.010pp against five months earlier (2026-02); 10-year Treasury yield +0.020pp against five observations earlier (2026-08-03).

02 — what the models see

The model view, and the same breath its limits.

No model in this suite forecasts the federal funds rate or the Treasury curve. That is the honest answer, and this page will not dress it up as coverage. What the registry actually says:

frb-us does list a federal funds rate among its outputs — but its question types are economic_shock, so that rate is a reaction-function response to a shock under a declared policy rule, computed as a deviation from a fixed baseline. It is not a rate view.
us-hank reports a real_rate — the model-consistent real rate implied by its own calibrated steady state, as quarterly impulse responses, typically 5 years. That is not a market yield, and the model cannot answer forecasts (IRFs around a calibrated steady state, not a forecaster).
pe-microsim lists interest rates in its own cannot-answer field.
Nothing in the suite models the Treasury term structure at any maturity. There is no US counterpart to the gilt curve on the UK page because there is no US model that would read one.

So the two readings above stand alone: observed Federal Reserve data, dated and archived, with no model path beside them. They still do work here — they are the market backdrop the other US topics are read against, and the conditioning environment any future rate model would have to beat.

This is the one US topic where the useful output is a refusal, and it is the same refusal the UK rates and gilts page reaches for Bank Rate and gilt yields. If you need a rate forecast, the suite does not have one; the model directory shows what it does have, and the evidence page shows how well.

03 — run it yourself

Every number above is a command away.

With no model to run, what is runnable is the data itself and the claim above. The vintage store is static files over HTTPS — no key, no account, stdlib only:

import json, urllib.request

BASE = "https://policyengine-macro.vercel.app/data"
with urllib.request.urlopen(f"{BASE}/vintages/fred/us_federal_funds_rate/2026-08-04.json") as response:
    fed_funds = json.load(response)
print(fed_funds["vintage"], fed_funds["observations"][-1])   # 2026-08-04 {'period': '2026-07', 'value': 3.63}

And the refusal is checkable rather than asserted:

pe-macro model-status   # every model, its country, status and access
pe-macro model-status frb-us --json   # outputs, question types and cannot_answer, verbatim
pe-macro model-status us-hank --json   # the same for the HANK member

Over MCP the same registry is list_model_capabilities and get_model_status; recommend_model returns an explicit warning rather than a guess when no model supports a request. Connect a client →

04 — the data behind it

Source, coverage, and the immutable file.

Every value on this page is read from the vintage file linked here, not from a live call.
Series	Publisher	Coverage	Snapshots	This vintage	Next release
Effective federal funds rate	FRED · FEDFUNDS	2020-01 – 2026-07	2	2026-08-04.json	not announced
10-year Treasury yield	FRED · DGS10	2020-01-02 – 2026-08-10	8	2026-08-12.json	not announced

One monthly series and one daily series, so the two observation dates above never line up — that is the data, not a presentation choice. FRED supplies no announced next-release date through this site's fetcher, so the column says so rather than guessing a schedule from the publisher's calendar.

The snapshot files are append-only and never edited, so a number published here can be reproduced against the data as it stood — browse the store, its release calendar, and the as-of recipe →

What do US rates say — and what can this site honestly say back?

The numbers, as the snapshot stores them.

The model view, and the same breath its limits.

Every number above is a command away.

Source, coverage, and the immutable file.