real-time forecast record · US

No US rounds yet — by design.

The record only publishes what a model genuinely claimed before the outturn existed. No current US model makes a predictive claim, so there is nothing honest to archive yet.

01 — why this page is empty

The US models do not forecast.

→frb-us is a validated software replication of the Fed’s model — it answers “what does a shock do”, and its validation makes no predictive claim.

→us-hank is a calibrated research prototype; its responses are first-order and stylized, not forecasts.

→Archiving “forecasts” from models that do not claim to forecast would manufacture a record. The UK page exists because boe-svar genuinely forecasts and accepts being scored.

02 — the baseline on record

The Fed’s path, published for comparison.

The closest thing to a US forward path here is the FRB/US LONGBASE conditioning baseline — the Fed-style near-term path that frb-us shock experiments deviate from. It is published for orientation, clearly not ours: no uncertainty bands, and it will never be scored on this page.

FRB/US April 2026 LONGBASE conditioning baseline — the Fed-style path frb-us shocks deviate from. Not a PolicyEngine forecast; no bands; never scored.
Quarter	Real GDP, y/y	CPI, y/y	Unemployment
2026Q2	2.5%	3.2%	4.4%
2026Q3	2.0%	3.2%	4.4%
2026Q4	2.4%	3.2%	4.4%
2027Q1	2.4%	3.0%	4.4%
2027Q2	2.4%	2.8%	4.3%

→Extracted from the Fed’s own package data by the adapter (longbase_baseline_yoy.csv); the US economy page shows the same baseline beside each outturn.

03 — what exists today

Current US data and model responses.

The US economy page tracks the official data — growth, inflation, unemployment, yields — with a committed vintage behind every number, and frb-us answers shock questions on top of the Fed’s own baseline via the hosted tools and CLI.

04 — what a US record takes

The bar does not move.

A US track record starts the day a model here makes a genuine predictive claim: rounds committed to Git before the outturn, append-only under the same CI gate as the UK record, and scored against realised data whatever that shows. Until then this page stays empty rather than pretend.