OBR macroeconometric model
Replication of the OBR's published equations against its November 2025 forecast and HMRC ready-reckoner anchors.
five evidence guides
Each guide brings the model and evidence together. Three replicate published benchmarks; OLG is calibrated, and PolicyEngine is checked against implemented legislation.
Replication of the OBR's published equations against its November 2025 forecast and HMRC ready-reckoner anchors.
UK GDP and inflation forecasts, identified shocks, and replication of published forecast-error variance shares.
A from-scratch Python implementation checked against pyfrbus impulse responses under the same policy rule.
The long-run work, saving, capital, and public-finance mechanisms behind the calibrated transition model.
Household tax-and-benefit calculations checked directly against implemented legislation rather than a working paper.