five evidence guides

Choose a model. See the evidence.

Each guide brings the model and evidence together. Three replicate published benchmarks; OLG is calibrated, and PolicyEngine is checked against implemented legislation.

obr-macro · UK · 36 pages

OBR macroeconometric model

Replication of the OBR's published equations against its November 2025 forecast and HMRC ready-reckoner anchors.

Validation: published-anchor replication

boe-svar · UK · 29 pages

Bank of England structural VAR

UK GDP and inflation forecasts, identified shocks, and replication of published forecast-error variance shares.

Validation: published-anchor replication

frb-us · US · 36 pages

Federal Reserve macroeconomic model

A from-scratch Python implementation checked against pyfrbus impulse responses under the same policy rule.

Validation: published-anchor replication

psl-og · UK · 34 pages

PSL overlapping generations

The long-run work, saving, capital, and public-finance mechanisms behind the calibrated transition model.

Evidence: calibrated counterfactual; no independent reform replication

pe-microsim · UK + US · research

PolicyEngine microsimulation

Household tax-and-benefit calculations checked directly against implemented legislation rather than a working paper.

Evidence: deterministic rule calculations; population estimates also depend on survey data and calibration